Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado

Why Ukraine May Try to Retake Crimea Next

Episode Summary

Since the start of the Russian invasion last February, it has been a commonly accepted wisdom that Ukraine will not try to retake Crimea - an action that many in the West worry will trigger an escalation - until it has taken back all of the territory lost since February 2022. In this episode, Dmitri Alperovitch once again talks to Sergii Grabskyi, a Reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, who challenges that notion. Sergii makes a compelling case that Ukraine is likely to try to retake Crimea as part of an upcoming new offensive. Other topics covered in an in-depth conversation about the state of the war: - Why Ukraine is fighting so hard for Bakhmut despite taking devastating losses there - Why Kreminna and Svatove are even more important than Bakhmut - The vital importance of the barely noticed fight at Vulhledar in the South - Is it possible for Ukrainian forces to cross the Dnipro river - Why the latest supplies of western Infantry Fighting Vehicles and tanks may not help as much as many think - How Ukraine is maintaining the Noah's Ark of western weapons donations - Why Ukraine has not attempted to destroy the North Crimean Canal and the real situation with the water supplies to Crimea - Why there is only one real general in the Russian military - Where is Ukraine expecting a new Russian offensive - Why the stories of Russian forces being unmotivated to fight is largely a myth - Why Kharkiv remains a key priority for Russia - Why Ukraine is not worried about a new offensive from Belarus - and much more

Episode Notes

Music: "There beyond the fogs" Ukrainian take on a popular patriotic  song from a Russian rock band Lyube, rewritten with lyrics about the explosions in Crimea